The Kabul Tribune (KT) — Australia is heading toward a major demographic shift, with deaths projected to outnumber births for the first time in the 2060s, raising concerns about the long-term impact of an aging population and declining birth rates, Reuters reported Monday.
The projection was included in Australia’s latest
Intergenerational Report, which examines the country’s economic and demographic
outlook over the next four decades.
Australia has relied heavily on immigration to sustain
population growth as birth rates have declined. But the government expects
population growth to slow as fertility rates fall and net overseas migration
declines before eventually stabilizing.
Annual population growth is projected to average 0.9% over
the next 40 years, down from an average of 1.4% over the past four decades,
according to the report.
“For the first time, deaths are projected to outnumber
births by the 2060s,” Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in a speech.
The number of Australians aged 85 and older is expected to
triple by 2066, increasing pressure on the country’s health and aged-care
systems, Chalmers said.
The Treasury identified artificial intelligence,
geopolitical fragmentation, the transition to cleaner energy, an aging
population and the shift toward a service-based economy as the five major
transformations likely to shape Australia’s economic outlook over the coming
decades.
The demographic changes could also worsen labor shortages in
health care and aged care, particularly in regions with older populations.
Those sectors rely heavily on migrant workers.
The projections come as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s
Labor government has moved to tighten immigration rules. Reuters reported last
week that Australia introduced new restrictions affecting foreign students and
their families as the government faces growing political pressure over
immigration.
The government is also expected to face difficult choices
over future tax policy and public spending as it seeks to provide
cost-of-living relief amid elevated inflation, high mortgage rates and
expensive housing.
The demographic trend mirrors developments in other advanced
economies, including Japan, Germany and South Korea, where deaths have already
exceeded births and governments are grappling with the economic consequences of
aging populations and low fertility rates.
